That above guide sucks . . .
Here's actual info:
Downgrades
Good Condition - 1% chance
Medium Condition - 5% chance
Bad Condition - 10% chance
Upgrades
If in good condition - It takes 4 times the maintenance of the max capacity of the mine (for example if your mine has max attendance of 50 workers, it would take the maintenance costs of 200 people working the mines times 4)
If in Medium/Bad Condition - Emergency repairs can be done which cost 3 times the maintenance costs of the amount of workers in the mine the previous day. If zero people were in the mine the previous day, maintenance is free.